Chemistry output globally will increase 3.5% in 2011, as measured by volume, according to the Year-end 2011 Situation and Outlook report from the American Chemistry Council (ACC; Washington, D.C.; www.americanchemistry.com). Released today, the report summarizes the economic trends experienced in 2011 and looks forward to 2012.
“Overall activity in the $4.12-trillion global business of chemistry improved 3.5% in 2011 as the global economic recovery extended into its third year,” ACC wrote in the report. Looking forward, ACC expects the debt crisis in Europe to constrain chemical output globally next year to around 3.6%. Continued recovery could mean a 4.7% gain in chemical output in 2013, ACC estimates.
“During the next two years, the most rapid growth will occur in the emerging nations of Asia-Pacific, Africa and the Middle East, Emerging Europe and Latin America,” ACC says. “Most notable are China and India, but Korea, Singapore and Taiwan will also present good growth prospects through 2013,”
At the most basic level, worldwide economic prospects in the coming years will be divided into two tracks, with the developed countries growing more slowly, and the emerging markets showing more rapid growth, the ACC report explains. Factors slowing developed-country growth include debt constraints, tighter fiscal policy and demographic factors, while industrialization and rising consumer-driven economies in regions with emerging markets will drive more rapid growth there.
Globally, capital spending in the chemical industry is expected to increase by an average of 9.5% in 2011 and 2012, ACC forecasts. Plant and equipment investment in 2010 was $464 billion.
The ACC report also highlights the impact of increased access to natural gas from from shale deposits. In the U.S., shale gas is a “game-changer,” ACC says, creating a competitive advantage for U.S. manufacturers. “Growth in domestic shale gas production is helping to reduce U.S. natural gas prices and create a more stable supply of natural gas for fuel and power,” the report states.
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