ACC’s (Washington, D.C.; www.americanchemistry.com) mid-year assessment of economic conditions was published at the end of last week. Despite the significant disruptions to the global economy, the U.S. economy has remained broadly resilient heading into mid‑2026. While export demand for advantaged natural gas-based chemistries could expand, output in other segments will be flat to down. Overall, U.S. chemical output volumes are expected to rise only 0.5% in 2026, with gains in basic and agricultural chemicals offset by lower output of consumer products and specialty chemicals.
Other macroecononic and end-use market news reported by ACC this week includes the following:
- Industrial production inched up 0.1% in May after gaining 0.9% in April. A 1.3% rise in mining output was partly offset by 0.4% drop in utilities production. Manufacturing output was flat. Compared to a year ago, total industrial production rose 1.7% while manufacturing output gained 1.4%. Capacity utilization increased slightly from 76.1 in April to 76.2.
- Homebuilder sentiment cooled in June, with the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market index of current sales conditions falling 2 points to 38. Sales expectations and traffic of prospective buyers remained unchanged. The share of builders cutting prices rose from 32% in May to 35%, while the use of sales incentives remained above 60% for the 15th straight month.
- Housing starts plunged 15.4% in May, driven down by multifamily starts, which plummeted 41.6%. Chemically intensive single-family home starts saw a more moderate 1.9% drop. All regions experienced declines except for the Midwest, where starts rose 3.7%. The Northeast saw the biggest drop at 26.8%. Total housing starts lost 8.7% Y/Y. Meanwhile, building permits fell 0.7% in May and dipped 0.2% Y/Y.
- Retail sales (which are reported on a nominal basis) continued to rise, up 0.9%. The largest gains were in gas station sales (reflecting higher prices), motor vehicles, miscellaneous and online stores. Sales at restaurants, department stores and electronics & appliance stores were lower.
- Import prices (which exclude tariffs) rose 1.9% in May after adding 2.0% the previous month. Import prices were propelled by fuels and lubricants, which as a category jumped 12.5% in May following an 18.6% increase in April. Export prices gained 1.3% on top of a 3.5% increase in April. Compared to a year ago, import prices rose 6.7% (with fuel import prices zooming 45.1%) while export prices increased 11.2%.
- Manufacturing activity increased modestly in June in the New York and Philadelphia regions, according to two regional Fed manufacturing surveys.
- Combined business inventories rose 0.5% in April, with gains across all three major segments. Sales rose 1.2% with strong sales in wholesale and manufacturing. The inventories-to-sales ratio continued to move lower, down to 1.31, its lowest level in four years.
- In Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting, interest rates were left unchanged, but Fed officials’ expectations of future interest rates (so-called dot plot) suggest rates could rise by year-end before resuming a downward trajectory in 2027.
And in Chemicals:
- Industrial production of chemicals (excluding pharma) dropped 0.7% in May after losing 0.9% in April. It also dropped compared to last year, slipping 0.8%. On the month, the following chemicals increased the most: adhesives (+4.2%); paint, coatings & adhesives (+3.9%); paint & coating (+3.7%); and artificial & synthetic fibers and filaments (+2.1%). On the flip side, synthetic dye and pigment (-3.3%), industrial gas (-2.8%), consumer products (-2.7%), and basic inorganic chemicals (-2.5%) dropped the most. Finally, chemical capacity utilization dipped from 79.6% in April to 78.9%.
- Exports of chemicals continued to expand in April, up 0.9% to $14.4B, the highest level since the front-loading binge in March 2025. Higher exports of inorganics, petrochemicals & intermediates, plastic resins and coatings were offset by lower exports of other chemical products. Chemical imports were lower by 4.7% following a bump in April. The trade surplus in chemicals expanded to $3.8B.
- Following declines in nine of the past 10 weeks, chemical railcar loadingsmoved slightly higher during the week ending June 13th. Loadings remained higher than a year ago (up 2.6%) on a 13-week moving average basis.
Visit ACC’s Data & Industry Statistics for more information.